From the WSJ Opinion Archives
POLITICS & PEOPLE
A Shifting McCain Base
He's got lots of supporters, just not in his party.
John McCain remains an enormously popular figure. His favorability ratings are eclipsed only by those of unelected icons such as Colin Powell and Alan Greenspan.
But, according to last week's Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, the McCain base has changed significantly, and in just a few months. His popularity with Democrats and liberals has soared, while it has dipped among Republicans and conservatives. It held steady among moderates and independents. (A private Arizona survey recently showed a similar trend there.)
This may not be surprising, since President Bush is a divisive figure--very popular with his GOP base and unpopular with the opposition--and because recently the Arizona senator has been a Bush foe on several issues. There's even been speculation--fueled by McCain forces, which he was forced to quell--of him leaving the GOP.
But if this represents the beginning of a permanent shift, it has political implications. It would signal the final straw for any McCain influence within the Republican Party, as well as offer encouragement that the senator could run an independent presidential run with broad-based appeal.
This is the dream of the hard-core McCain brigade. It may occur. But there's a fatalism about John McCain--more than five years of torture in a POW camp will do that to you. He muses about possible scenarios, but hasn't any real notion how the next few years will unfold.
Asked in the Journal/NBC News survey whether Mr. McCain's outspokenness on major issues reflects principle or political opportunism, the public divides; Democrats and liberals say principle, Republicans and conservatives say politics.
Actually, Mr. Bush and the Arizona senator have cooled their enmity in recent weeks, with both sides realizing it's in their short-term interest. They dined together and Mr. McCain later had lunch with White House counselor Karen Hughes. The two staffs have talked about their differences over the patients' bill of rights legislation. On Thursday top McCain advisor John Weaver, a Bush White House nemesis, had lunch with Ms. Hughes; she apparently has the McCain account.
The two former rivals may work together on a couple of big issues, starting with defense reform. Mr. McCain has a cordial relationship with defense chief Donald Rumsfeld--which puts him ahead of most senators--and close ties to Mr. Powell. He also continues to support partially privatizing Social Security, although political and budget realities are likely to push this measure to the backburner.
But the mistrust between the McCain and Bush partisans runs deep. Privately, both groups accuse the other of duplicity on the current battle over the patients' bill of rights, in which Mr. McCain is allied with Democrats Ted Kennedy and John Edwards against George Bush and the HMOs.
If Karen Hughes is the good cop, relations between Mr. McCain and the top Bush political adviser, Karl Rove, are spiteful. Mr. Rove hasn't spoken to Mr. McCain this year and wastes few opportunities to trash the Arizona Republican. His views are shared by more than a few conservative Republican politicians. This is reflected in an exceptionally hostile treatment from most of the conservative press, where Mr. McCain arouses more vitriol than Ted Kennedy.
Some other Republicans, however, worry that unavoidable forces--the Bush-McCain relationship, the greater attention the senator receives when he aligns with Democrats--might combine to distance him further from his party. "John looks at the GOP and sees resentment; he looks at the Democrats and sees open arms," says Vin Weber, a leading Republican strategist who was a McCain backer but who has ties to the Bush White House. "That is an understandable problem, and it's not going away."
Indeed, that problem may be exacerbated by the fight over HMOs and campaign-finance reform, not to mention Mr. McCain's alliance with Democrats and Joe Lieberman to close a gun-control loophole.
Potentially, the biggest fight with the White House and most congressional Republicans could come over the just-enacted tax cut that Mr. McCain voted against. There is a growing recognition that it's impossible to fund most new programs, including the ambitious defense-spending programs; it's thus likely that Democrats will attempt to scale back the later phases of the tax cut which overwhelmingly benefit upper-income individuals.
Democratic politicians, as well as rank-and-file Democrats, love it when the maverick Arizonan is critical of President Bush. But not all Democrats would be thrilled if he left the GOP. A survey last month by Democrats Stan Greenberg and James Carville suggests that in a hypothetical three-way match-up in 2004, an independent McCain candidacy would take more votes away from a Democratic aspirant than a Republican one.
Of course, 2002 comes first. Mr. McCain's efforts were crucial in the GOP retention of the House last time, and Rep. Tom Davis has tried to enlist him again. The not-so-subtle response: Let's see what happens when the House votes on campaign-finance reform this month.
Sen. McCain plans to stump for Republicans who've aligned with him on this issue. But he warns that those who indicated support during the last election but then sell their souls to House Whip Tom DeLay on the vote will pay a price. An example: If Florida Rep. Clay Shaw votes against the campaign-finance reform legislation, Mr. McCain says he'll write a letter to the 2000 Democratic candidate in that district to apologize for his role in helping Rep. Shaw eke out a narrow victory.
After campaign-finance reform, Sen. McCain will push for a major expansion of national service, including ways to encourage more military service. This cuts across partisan and ideological lines; he's talking to neoconservatives as well as the centrist Democratic Leadership Council and Democratic colleagues like Evan Bayh, as well Republicans Chuck Hagel and Mike DeWine.
Whatever the polls and pundits declare, John McCain is convinced that on most issues he is where America's swing voters are. He's also convinced that central to his appeal is a willingness to put his popularity at risk, to use political capital. That may cause an ever-changing base. Whatever the effect on politics next year, or two years later, he's going to keep doing it.
Mr. Hunt is executive Washington editor of The Wall Street Journal. His column appears in the Journal on Thursdays.
