CAMPAIGN 2006
Pelosi's No Gingrich
Is it 1994 all over again? Not just yet.
Some political pundits are speculating that the Democrats are poised to retake control of the House of Representatives this fall, much like the GOP did in 1994, when it dramatically ended 40 years of Democratic control. As a proud member of 1994's "New Majority" Republican class in the House, I understand the historic dimensions of that victory and the dynamics that made it possible. I also know why neither will apply to the elections in November. Those who predict a Democratic takeover of the House are wrong--but maybe by just a couple of years.
In the summer of 1994 I was a congressional challenger trying to persuade skeptical voters (and sometimes myself) that my run against a sitting speaker of the House was more than just a long shot. No sitting speaker, after all, had been defeated since before the Civil War. But the more I campaigned, the more I sensed that voters were ready for change. As I walked the main streets and worked the coffee shops and neighborhoods of eastern Washington state, I met more and more restless people. They were frustrated with Washington, D.C., and weary of a Congress that seemed more enthusiastic about scoring points in political gamesmanship than actually getting anything done.
The mood of today's voters toward Congress is just as dispirited, and who can blame them? Their evening news and morning papers, when not devoted to gloom from Iraq, are filled with stories about internecine policy squabbles in Congress, alongside daily volleys of cross-accusations and name-calling from America's political leaders over the ethical scandal du jour. Little wonder that a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found only 23% of voters nationwide approve of the job that Congress is doing.
But voter unrest does not by itself portend wholesale electoral change. Even disgruntled Americans are reluctant to "fire" incumbents if they think they're just trading in one pol for another, regardless of party. That's the lesson of 1994.
Led by Newt Gingrich, the GOP candidates that year responded to the disillusionment of voters with the refreshing and specific ideas of the Contract with America. They proved that voters are drawn to issues and genuine political leadership, even in the absence of complete ideological agreement. In my own case, the voters in my district seemed electrified by the positive promise of specific policy proposals related to issues they cared about--fiscal responsibility, ensuring the safety of our homes and streets and schools, securing family values, family-oriented tax policies, strong national defense and commonsense legal reforms. And this was not just a Republican phenomenon. The Contract spoke to a wide cross-section of all voters.
For their part, Nancy Pelosi's Democrats seem confident that they'll sweep into the majority this fall on a single concept: "We're not them." Even their highly anticipated "Take Back America" agenda was little more than a public relations ploy to repackage the same vague and boring platitudes their pollsters have been feeding them since George McGovern: "Putting People First," "Real Security," "Healthcare for All" or "An Economy That Works." Whatever happened to "Where's the Beef?"
As if conducted by a tone-deaf maestro, the Democrats unveiled this agenda against a public chorus of Bernie Sanders, Jesse Jackson, Howard Dean--and Gary Hart. "Take Back America"? Two-thirds of Americans, if they paid any attention at all, probably turned to each other and asked, mystified, when did we ever govern America with them? And Ms. Pelosi is certainly no Newt Gingrich.
But that's only half the story. Republicans, too, have apparently forgotten the exhilarating early days of the GOP-led Congress in 1995, when the pure political andrenaline of knowing that the Contract had really connected with voters inspired us to work long weeks and late nights to enact its promises. Today my former colleagues seem tired, conflicted and defensive about holding their majority in the face of huge budget deficits, an unpopular and difficult war, and the inefficiencies that come with a bigger government bureaucracy--all at a time when a few Republican and Democratic members face their own ethical issues.
Even though the public seems struck with political fatigue, it's not too late for either party to be bold about something.
The excitement and promise of 1994 could happen again. An aggressive ideas agenda is not just within the purview of the minority party. It is an imperative of the majority if it is to deserve the majority. So my friends in the majority should publicly take on issues the public cares about, like a spiraling federal budget deficit, a huge and growing federal government bureaucracy, fair and rational entitlement reform, and an unnecessarily complicated and burdensome tax system.
There are a whole myriad of other opportunities, large and small: Americans are waiting for someone to take on the challenges of an international energy situation that potentially leaves our economy and maybe even our security at risk. Or how about smaller but important things, like tweaking the unintended burdens of Sarbanes-Oxley on small-business owners? American voters will warm to leadership based on any of these issues. But so far we're hearing nothing.
If this fall's congressional campaigns grind along without either party rising to these challenges, the Republicans will hold their majorities, in spite of themselves (see "pol vs. pol," above). But it may prove a hollow victory. The real fulcrum of historic political change will confront them in 2008. And it will emerge from a different political calculation, also based on ideas: "bankrupt vs. bankrupt = change." If Republicans can't muster a spirited and substantive agenda of specific ideas to unite this party--based on common sense and sound principles of fiscal discipline, government accountability, free markets and a safe, well-educated populace--they will likely surrender their majorities, and probably the White House, by default.
At that point, "We're not them" may be all the Democrats need to win.
Mr. Nethercutt was a Republican congressman from 1995 to 2005.
