REVIEW & OUTLOOK
The Christian Century
What's the world's fastest-growing religion? (Hint: Not Islam.)
As the world celebrates Christmas, it's a good time to take stock of the religion behind this holy day. Contrary to perceived wisdom, Christianity is booming.
For obvious reasons, the big story of late has been the growth of Islam, especially in poor and populous parts of the world. That news contrasts with reports suggesting Christianity is in serious decline. Europe, long the center of the Christian world, is experiencing falling birth rates, aging congregants and increased secularism. In North America, scandals such as the Catholic Church's over sexual misconduct suggest a faith in trouble.
But all of this ignores the world outside the West. As Penn State University Professor Philip Jenkins explains in his new book, "The Next Christendom," the largest populations of Christians on the planet are in Africa and Latin America--and they continue to grow at phenomenal rates. As a result, "in its variety and vitality, in its global reach, in its association with the world's fastest-growing societies . . . it is Christianity that will leave the deepest mark on the twenty-first century," Mr. Jenkins writes in The Atlantic Monthly.
In 1900, Africa had 10 million Christians, or about 9% of its population. Today that continent is home to 360 million Christians out of 784 million people, or 46%. Latin America has 480 million Christians, and Asia another 313 million. By 2025 Christians will be by far the world's largest faith at 2.6 billion, with half of that in Latin America and Africa, and another 17% in Asia.
As Professor Jenkins notes, this boom will redefine regions, politics and Christianity itself. While the liberal and secular West has long been pushing for greater reform in its churches, the fast-growing Christian populations of the Southern Hemisphere are flocking to more radical sects such as Pentecostalism, or are demanding a return to more conservative forms of Catholicism. What this rift will mean for governing bodies like the Vatican is unclear.
Given Christianity's influence in countries that are moving toward democracy, religion itself is likely to play a key role in the ultimate shape of these nations. The record has been encouraging to date, with African and Asian church leaders using their popularity to insert Christian principles of justice and morality into the political realm, such as the role played by South African churches in ending apartheid. At some point, however, these nations will face questions about church-state divides or tolerance for religious minorities. Given the growth of Islam in the same areas, it also raises the potential for more conflicts like those in Sudan, Nigeria or Indonesia.
What does this mean for the traditional Christian centers of Europe and North America? The center of Christianity is definitely moving to Africa, Latin America and Asia, though interestingly those adherents are bringing their religions back to Europe and the U.S. Declining birthrates in Europe will likely bring greater immigration, much of it fueled by active Christians from poorer regions like Africa. This is already happening; Professor Jenkins cites London's Kingsway International Christian Center, founded in 1992 by a Nigerian pastor, which is now said to be the largest church created in Britain since 1861.
America, with its faster birthrates and immigration, will continue to see Christian growth for years to come. Even with all of its diversity today, the number of Jews, Muslims, Buddhists and Hindus in the U.S. is exceedingly small, amounting to only 4% or 5% of the population, and that percentage isn't likely to change much in the foreseeable future. America may not see Africa's Christian boom, but the vitality and change that has marked Christianity for so long will continue to mark the American experiment too.
