REVIEW & OUTLOOK
The Inspections Trap
Saddam once again tries to lead us on a wild weapons chase.
President Bush has said he wants weapons inspectors back in Iraq. But this raises the question of what will happen if Saddam Hussein says yes. Already the Iraqi dictator is up to his old tricks of leading the world, and especially the ever-trusting United Nations, on a wild weapons chase that only buys him more time to acquire a nuclear bomb.
Iraq's Foreign Minister met with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in New York yesterday, and the country is hinting it might allow a full U.N. team as long as there's a time limit on its work. Saddam has dispatched envoys to Russia and the Arab League, and offered the British a chance to "prove" he has weapons of mass destruction--an offer Downing Street has smartly pooh-poohed. At the U.N., he's clearly hoping for a deal to deter any U.S.-led military action.
We think there's more than enough reason to depose Saddam without having to play the inspections card. His attempts to gather and use weapons of mass destruction are well documented; getting a nuclear bomb to use as blackmail may now be the only way he can even stay in power. The dictator is also in perpetual violation of the Gulf War cease-fire terms, so the original U.N. and Congressional resolutions authorizing force against him are very much alive.
In 1997, after years of Iraqi non-cooperation, U.N. inspectors (Unscom) decide on an aggressive strategy of surprise inspections. Iraq responds in October by barring U.S. members of the team. In November, Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov brokers a deal to allow their return, but they arrive to find themselves barred from "presidential sites."
On January 2, 1998, Unscom's Baghdad offices are attacked with grenades, and 11 days later Iraq blocks an inspection, accusing its team leader, American Scott Ritter, of being a spy. Later that month, President Clinton threatens an attack in the State of Union address.
Enter the U.N. Secretary-General. On February 20, Mr. Annan arrives in Baghdad on a "sacred" mission. He soon announces an agreement on continued inspections, calling Saddam "a man I can do business with," the deal "a victory for peace, for reason and for the resolution of conflict by diplomacy." But in April U.N. inspectors announce no progress in verifying whether Saddam has destroyed his weapons of mass destruction, and in June they announce the discovery of VX nerve gas in Iraqi missile warheads. Iraq insists it never weaponized VX.
On August 5 Iraq suspends cooperation with Unscom, and in September Scott Ritter resigns citing a lack of U.N. Security Council support for Unscom's work. In October Iraq announces the end of all cooperation with Unscom. On November 14 Iraq makes Mr. Annan another offer and inspectors return. But the next month Unscom chief Richard Butler says there's still no cooperation. The inspectors leave, and Operation Desert Fox begins. After a few days of airstrikes, Mr. Clinton turns his attention back to impeachment.
Surely President Bush knows this ludicrous history. He must also understand the current risk that after more than three years without inspections, Iraq may have its stockpiles hidden well enough that it can appear to be cooperative for some time. One defector recently told of working on various chemical and biological sites in secret locations including private homes. Another has talked of refrigerator trucks that Saddam uses as mobile biological labs.
Given his track record, Kofi Annan is the last person who can be trusted to negotiate this kind of inspections regime. If Mr. Bush is serious about what even Colin Powell now calls "regime change" in Iraq, the U.S. is going to have to insist on the terms. This is only right, because it is the U.S--not France or Russia--that will be Saddam's target if he ever does acquire the nuclear weapon he covets. Inspections are supposed to trap Saddam, not the U.S.
