From the WSJ Opinion Archives
Simon Says . . .
"Don't leave me bringing up the Riordan."
It looks as if the California Republican establishment may not succeed in winning the easy coronation of former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan as the party's nominee to challenge Gov. Gray Davis. Businessman Bill Simon, son of a former Treasury Secretary, has surged in his fight for his party's nomination for governor and is now tied with Mr. Riordan among Republicans in a Los Angeles Times poll. In a low turnout, Mr. Simon leads by three points.
A Riordan loss would stun the state's political pooh-bahs. But it shouldn't. There is an historical parallel. In 1966, the California GOP establishment also thought it had the perfect candidate to run against unpopular Gov. Pat Brown, an unpopular Democrat. George Christopher, a former mayor of San Francisco, was a businessman with impeccable moderate credentials.
The only problem was that Mr. Christopher's opponent was an actor by the name of named Ronald Reagan, a first-time candidate for office. Mr. Reagan proved a much more sure-footed candidate than expected, and his upset victory made history.
No one expects the results of next Tuesday's California primary for governor to have such momentous consequences. But the parallels are worth noting. Mr. Riordan is a former big-city mayor favored by party elites; Mr. Simon, a political neophyte who was widely dismissed by pundits as too green for the campaign trial. Mr. Reagan had an attractive, optimistic conservative message that resonated with voters. But Mr. Simon has climbed to 30% from 2% in part on the strength of a platform that could come straight from the briefing books of the conservative Heritage Foundation, of which Mr. Simon was a board member.
Mr. Riordan also hired several Democratic political advisors, including former Dukakis campaign manager Susan Estrich and former Jerry Brown pollster Pat Caddell. Both are good people, but they didn't inspire confidence that Mr. Riordan understood his need to shore up his conservative base before hunting for the Democratic and independent voters he used to get in droves in Los Angeles.
But again, a historical note of caution. In 1966, Pat Brown's operatives savaged George Christopher with planted stories in the media in hopes that he would lose to the inexperienced, politically "extreme" Ronald Reagan. He did, and voters dissatisfied with the Watts riots, unrest on college campuses and soaring welfare rolls turned the election into a referendum on Brown's administration. Result: a Reagan landslide.
Bill Simon is no Ronald Reagan, although he has become a much more polished candidate on the stump. But Gray Davis is even more unpopular than Pat Brown was 36 years ago. The electricity crisis, the governor's strongarm fundraising tactics and his budgetary mismanagement have left his job approval at an anemic 47%.
Mr. Simon is also already doing as well in prospective match-ups with Gov. Davis as Mr. Riordan, widely viewed as the only electable Republican candidate. The Times poll has either man trailing Mr. Davis by eight points. A new poll by the Public Policy Institute has Mr. Simon outperforming Mr. Riordan against Gov. Davis.
The smart money is still betting against a Simon primary upset and is even less confident he could survive a Davis onslaught in the fall. But the smart money is often wrong. That's what makes politics fun. After all, a year ago, who would have thought New Yorkers would now be addressing Mike Bloomberg, another wealthy businessman completely new to politics, as mayor. Similarly, no one should be shocked that next year political reporters in Sacramento might begin their articles, "Gov. Simon says."
