From the WSJ Opinion Archives
THE WESTERN FRONT
Not a Very Good Year
Can President Bush recover from his annus horribilis?
Regardless of whether Harriet Miers reaches the Supreme Court, Karl Rove gets indicted, or Tom DeLay and Bill Frist survive their legal troubles, one thing is becoming disappointingly clear: The first year of President Bush's second term has largely been a bust for conservatives.
This isn't the year President Bush envisioned when he promised on the campaign trail last year to continue to prosecute the war on terror in Iraq and around the globe, appoint Supreme Court justices in the mold of Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas, and make the tax cuts permanent. It's also not what he envisioned when mentioned simplifying the tax code and reforming Social Security. These weren't vast "ownership society" promises aimed at getting the federal burden off the back of most Americans. They were promises to stay the course and improve at the margins.
But now, heading into a congressional election year--when it's tough to get anything of consequence done--the president is floundering and can point to only a short list of accomplishments. He's held the line on the war (with notable success in Iraq, achieved under intense pressure to cut and run) and is one for two on Supreme Court nominees. Other achievements include signing bankruptcy reform, getting some of his judges past the threat of a Democratic filibuster, passing the Central American Free Trade Agreement, and steadying himself after a devastating hurricane.
That this isn't the year Mr. Bush hoped to have is an understatement. That it has been a squandered opportunity to enact meaningful domestic reform is a fact. Perhaps the biggest disappointment comes in the area of federal spending. The president hasn't led a campaign to slice fat from discretionary programs (though some on Capitol Hill have), and Congress has shown little appetite for reforming entitlement programs, which cost nearly 50% more than what they did when Mr. Bush took office. When the president made a determined push to enact serious Social Security reform, Congress balked. Democrats remained united in opposition, while many Republicans looked at their toes.
If administration officials were surprised by the lack of support they found among even "red state" Democrats, they have a right to be outraged by an unwillingness among Republican leaders in Congress even to hold a vote. It might once have been inconceivable that a president would be handed such a large and public defeat while his party controlled Congress. But then the White House also mishandled this issue by failing to get behind one proposal. It's a nice idea to ask for ideas from all sides, but it's not how Washington works. In politics, even a flawed plan beats no plan, so the Democrats won by offering the status quo.
Another surprising disappointment is Harriet Miers's nomination to the Supreme Court. Whatever you think of Ms. Miers's qualifications, it is clear that her nomination is a political disaster. The conservative base is in an uproar and the president is being forced to defend her and spend his dwindling political capital. If he wins this fight, he'll be weaker and have less momentum than he had before he nominated her. Ms. Miers may turn out to be the right person for the court, but without a recent string of victories at his back this wasn't the right time for the president to nominate someone without a judicial track record.
Presidential terms last four years. But the span of time when it's possible to get anything done in Washington is actually much shorter. The first year or year and a half of a president's term is often the best time to pass major legislation. It's when the president carries a fresh electoral mandate and members of Congress are at their bravest because the next election is a long way off.
Mr. Bush will never get this year back, but it's not time yet to fold up the tents on his administration. The president can still recover, pick up momentum and get back in the lead. He took the first step in tapping Ben Bernanke to replace Alan Greenspan, a move for which he instantly won wide praise. The next steps will involve cleaning up the Miers mess and getting past the scandal surrounding the "outing" of CIA agent Valeria Plame--which will be some feat if top officials face indictment.
Although necessary, these are only short-term tactical moves. Democrats could pick up seats in Congress next year, which would give them momentum and perhaps even control of the agenda. Another precious year could slip away if the administration gets bogged down and waits for the outcome of 2006 congressional elections. History will record Mr. Bush as a transformational president on foreign affairs for having liberated Afghanistan and Iraq and making democracy an attainable goal in the Islamic world. The next few months will be pivotal in determining whether the Bush presidency will transform anything at home.
Mr. Miniter is assistant editor of OpinionJournal.com. His column appears Tuesdays.
