Thursday, June 15, 2006 1:30 P.M. EDT

Political Diary is opening its doors through June 29.

• Joe Lieberman's Party of One
• One Question for Phil Angelides: Paper or Plastic?
• Kean Can!
• Base vs. Base (Quote of the Day)
• Bridge Abridged
• Unisexism

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman will have to decide soon whether to begin collecting signatures to appear on the ballot this fall as an independent, a sort of insurance policy should he lose the August 8th Democratic primary to liberal anti-war businessman Ned Lamont.

He might want to take out that policy. A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Mr. Lieberman leading Mr. Lamont by just six percentage points, 46% to 40%. The poll had a small sample size, but a much larger Quinnipiac University poll this month shows Mr. Lieberman with only a 15-point lead among likely voters, dangerously small for a three-term incumbent.

Mr. Lamont was certainly feeling his oats this week at the liberal Campaign for America's Future meeting in Washington. He took direct aim at Senator Lieberman's support for the war in Iraq, criticism of which is Mr. Lamont's signature issue. "I think it's high time the Democrats stand up and stop mumbling," he told activists as he discussed the war. "Say it loud and clear... the guys who got us into this war are the least likely to think of a common sense way to get us out."

No doubt Mr. Lieberman is one incumbent who very much hopes the recent spate of good news in Iraq continues for the next two months as he engages in hand-to-hand political combat of his own with Mr. Lamont. In the meantime, don't be surprised if Mr. Lieberman lays the groundwork for a three-way general election race this fall by taking out papers allowing him to run as an independent.

Democrat Phil Angelides starts out as the underdog in his race to unseat one of the most charismatic governors imaginable, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Mr. Angelides, the incumbent state treasurer, is respected as a policy wonk but would never be confused with being the life of the party.

What the Democratic nominee didn't need is for former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, the flamboyant elder statesmen of California Democrats, to rub that fact in. During a lunch with Sacramento Bee columnist R.E. Graswich, Mr. Brown let it be known that he enjoys hanging with Arnold: "He's the best in the business when he gets out around regular people and just sells himself as Arnold."

In contrast, Mr. Brown wasn't high on the selling skills of his opponent: "Phil is a smart guy. But he doesn't look good on TV and doesn't sound good on radio. They need to keep him in places like Dinuba and Chico, where they don't have modern communications with the rest of the state and no one can see or hear him."

Ouch. It sounds as if Mr. Brown is proposing his party's nominee enter a sort of candidate protection program so that voters won't be able to find him. That might save Californians from being exposed to Mr. Angelides' less-than-enthralling personality, but it's hardly going to be a successful strategy to topple Arnold.

New Jersey is shaping up to be a problem for Senate Democrats. Most of the recent punditry has focused on Republican troubles and whether or not Democrats can recapture Congress, but when looking at the Senate for 2006, perhaps a better question might be: Can the Democrats even pick up any seats?

Republicans are getting a "two-fer" from Jon Corzine's decision to leave the Senate for New Jersey's governor's mansion last year. First, as a sitting Senator with a willingness to spend enormous sums of his personal wealth, Mr. Corzine would have been a very difficult incumbent for Republicans to unseat. In his win in 2000, Mr. Corzine outspent his opponent Bob Franks $63 million to $6 million.

Second, as governor, Mr. Corzine has done his best to reenact the politically disastrous politics of the Florio administration. Like Gov. Jim Florio in 1989, Mr. Corzine has called for higher state taxes, causing his approval ratings to plummet. In 1990, this led to a political environment where the relatively unknown Christie Todd Whitman came within three points (50%-47%) of beating incumbent Senator Bill Bradley -- despite the fact that she was outspent by a margin of 15 to one.

This is the playing field shaping up for Mr. Corzine's appointed replacement, Senator Bob Menendez, who has neither Mr. Bradley's stature nor Mr. Corzine's money. To complicate matters further, Mr. Menendez's opponent, Tom Kean Jr., is the son of the popular former Governor Tom Kean.

Polling over the last six months by Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen Reports shows a close race with both candidates hovering in the high 30s/low 40s. Quinnipiac's last six polls (averaged out since November) show Mr. Menendez ahead 41% to 37%. Rasmussen's last six over the same time frame give Mr. Kean the edge 39% to 37%.

New Jersey was once a quintessential swing state that has become consistently more Democratic on the national level. The last time Republicans carried the state in a presidential election was 1988. But George W. Bush managed 46% in 2004, a six-point improvement from 2000. And the state Democratic Party has been skating on thin ice in the recent major elections for governor and Senate, surviving the Torricelli and McGreevey scandals only with shrewd gaming of the system, which may finally be catching up with the state party.

While President Bush's woes and Republican angst on Capitol Hill are dominating most of the national headlines, the political environment may be quietly shaping up for Republicans to pick up a Senate seat in the blue state of New Jersey.

"The smart money in Washington and around the country was favoring the Democrats' odds of winning back at least one chamber of Congress. But just a week later, and a lot of Democrats don't like the taste of the Kool-Aid they've been drinking.... [R]ealism has finally entered the equation when it comes to 2006, mostly based on one result -- the Calif.-50 special election. The race told us two things: There's no extra excitement in the Democratic base, as there was no increase in the Democratic vote... [and] immigration is an issue powerful enough to rally the Republican base. These lessons run counter to the conventional wisdom from just two weeks ago that presumed Democrats were more fired up about the 2006 elections than Republicans, who supposedly were having their own problems firing up their base" -- Hotline Editor Chuck Todd, writing at NationalJournal.com.

Every once in a while, after exhausting every other plausible alternative, Congress does the right thing. On Tuesday, the House of Representatives voted to prohibit federal funds from being used to build a celebrated bridge to connect the Alaska town of Ketchikan to Gravina Island, population 50. The bridge, known across America as the "Bridge to Nowhere," became such a symbol of federal spending excess that polls found that more Americans knew about the bridge than knew the name of their local congressman.

Credit goes to Rep. Mark Kirk of Illinois for pushing through the money-saving amendment that nixed the project on Tuesday. Heritage Foundation budget experts had called the $320 million bridge "perhaps the most unworthy federal construction project in history." It would have been as long as the Golden Gate Bridge and rise 80 feet higher than the Brooklyn Bridge. Then again, Senator Lisa Murkowski's relatives own land on remote Gravina Island -- which perhaps explains how this boondoggle got as far as it did.

Rep. Kirk tells us that with as many as one-third of all roads and bridges in America in need of repair, "this Alaska bridge never made any sense for taxpayers." Yet he seemed as surprised as anyone that his pork-culling amendment passed. The Alaska delegation is none to happy. Earlier this year, Senator Ted Stevens threatened to quit the Senate if the bridge funding was zeroed out.

Originally, the bridge to nowhere project was an earmark in the federal highway bill, but taxpayer outcry across the country forced an embarrassed Congress to pull the earmark. Alaskan legislators then said they would use their unallocated federal highway gas tax money to build the bridge. The Kirk amendment squashed that plan. This means, if Alaskans want the bridge to nowhere, they're going to have to pay for it themselves. What a concept.

It's probably not a great campaign slogan, but Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn can claim the title of the "Hottest Woman in U.S. Politics." She won the superlative in an online poll of politics1.com readers.

The tasteless survey pitted a field of five Democrats and five GOPers. Ms. Blackburn, 52, edged out second-place winner South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth, 18 years her junior. Michigan State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer rounded out the top three. This was one poll where name recognition apparently didn't play a big role -- witness the showings of Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, who finished ninth and tenth respectively.

Our apologies for not being able to report the results of the men's competition, which ends later today (though D.C. City Council candidate Sam Brooks is winning). Politics1.com, which bills itself as a "nonpartisan" Web site for political-news junkies, is the handiwork of Ron Gunzburger, who describes himself as a lawyer in the Broward County Property Appraiser's Office. Next month he plans to feature a "Worst Hair in Congress" poll. Visitors are invited to "nominate your favorite comb-overs, cheap hairpieces and overall tonsorial nightmares in the House and Senate." Chester A. Arthur is reportedly hoping for a rule change to allow posthumous entries.

Political Diary is opening its doors. Visit our Open House that runs through June 29.