by JAMES TARANTO
Monday, August 29, 2005 11:59 A.M. EDT

Katrina and the Waves
These are hard times in the Big Easy. New Orleans, hit this morning by hurricane Katrina, is perhaps America's most vulnerable city to natural catastrophe, both because it is in an area prone to hurricanes and, as CNN explains, because of its unusual geography:

About 70 percent of the city is below sea level.

The city essentially sits in a bowl, protected by a series of levies [sic] that keep the Mississippi River waters out.

[Mayor Ray] Nagin warned that Katrina's expected storm surge--which could top 28 feet--would likely topple those levies.

That 28 feet turned out to be an overestimate, according to an Associated Press dispatch filed at 8:55 a.m. Central Daylight Time today:

Katrina weakened overnight to a Category 4 storm and turned slightly eastward before hitting land about 6:10 a.m. CDT east of Grand Isle near the bayou town of Buras, providing some hope that this vulnerable city would be spared the storm's full fury.

But National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield warned that New Orleans would be pounded throughout the day and that Katrina's potential 15-foot storm surge, down from a feared 28 feet, was still substantial enough to cause extensive flooding.

As of 9:48 CDT, Katrina was downgraded further, to Category 3. Still, CNN reports that "the National Weather Service said there was 'total structural failure' in parts of metro New Orleans with wind gusts surpassing 120 mph." And the Associated Press notes that "in 1965, Hurricane Betsy, a Category 3 storm, submerged some parts of the city to a depth of seven feet."

Let us hope things don't turn out as bad as the National Weather Service predicted in a 6:19 a.m. CDT advisory titled "DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED" (quoting verbatim):

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW POSSIBLY TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. MANY WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED.

CNN reports on other possible forms of damage:

In New Orleans, which lies below sea level, gas and diesel tanks are all located above ground for the same reason that bodies are buried above ground. In the event of a flood, "those tanks will start to float, shear their couplings, and we'll have the release of these rather volatile compounds," [Ivor] van Heerden [of the Louisiana State University Public Health Research Center] added.

Because gasoline floats on water, "we could end up with some pretty severe and large--area-wise--fires."

"So, we're looking at a bowl full of highly contaminated water with contaminated air flowing around and, literally, very few places for anybody to go where they'll be safe."

He went further.

"So, imagine you're the poor person who decides not to evacuate: Your house will disintegrate around you. The best you'll be able to do is hang on to a light pole, and while you're hanging on, the fire ants from all the mounds--of which there is two per yard on average--will clamber up that same pole. And, eventually, the fire ants will win."

The Louisiana Superdome has been set up as an evacuation center, and the Wizbang! blog speculates that things could get uncomfortable there:

It's a near certainty the electricity will go out about midday Monday. The Dome has backup power but it is only for lighting--no environmental controls--and the backup lighting is not full power. The Dome is about 20 stories high, but people will be scattered all thru it.

If the worst happens--and at this point [last night] it seems implausible that it won't--the bottom 2 stories will fill with water. Dirty nasty foul water full of chemicals and raw sewerage. Further the bathroom facilities are only expected to function for the first day.

So in rough terms, 40,000+ people will be trapped in a building with no plumbing, little light and no air conditioning. The temps after the storm rolls thru will probably be in the low 90s. Considerably hotter in the building.

There is an elevated paved deck that surrounds the Dome. It will most probably be above water but inaccessible until probably daylight Tuesday. Once the people can get out to the deck, they will still be trapped there because the city will be underwater.

WSDU-TV's Katrina Blog reports that some 10,000 have taken refuge at the Superdome, whose roof has sprung a leak. One benchmark of New Orleans's recovery will be whether the Saints play their home opener as scheduled, Sept. 18 against the New York Giants. We are supposed to give a talk in New Orleans Sept. 17, though we suppose that is in doubt as well.

If you want to follow the story throughout the day, blogger Terry Teachout has prepared a handy list of blogs covering it. Let us hope and (if applicable) pray that the damage turns out to be merely severe rather than catastrophic.

Keep on the Sunni Side
The Iraqi Parliament approved the new constitution yesterday. It now goes before the voters in an Oct. 15 nationwide referendum. But Shiite and Kurdish parliamentarians approved the charter after Sunni Arabs balked. A two-thirds "no" vote in three of Iraq's provinces would defeat the charter, and Sunni Arabs are the majority in at least four provinces. Thus ratification is not assured.

A New York Times report, however, suggests divisions within the Sunnis:

A Sunni member of the constitutional drafting committee, Mahmoud al-Mashadani, said he favored approving the document. But he added that he feared he could become a target of more militant Sunnis if he were to speak out about it, particularly if the Muslim Scholars Association, an influential Sunni group, were to denounce the charter.

"Who is going to protect me when I'm walking in the streets after that?" he said, adding that he had just heard a Sunni imam denouncing those who supported the constitution as infidels.

Other Sunnis have expressed similar fears, especially after two Sunnis involved in drafting the constitution were assassinated last month.

Sunni reactionaries thus find themselves in a curious position. In order to defeat the constitution, they will have to encourage their supporters to vote, which in itself would be a mark of progress toward democracy. But if Mashadani's experience is typical, it may be that Sunni opinion is decidedly mixed, with proponents of democracy keeping their heads down for fear of being targeted by paramilitary death squads. In the privacy of the voting booth, however, enough of them may vote for the constitution to ensure its passage.

Playing Chicken
A new Associated Press-Ipsos poll has results that seem obvious: "People who have friends or relatives serving in Iraq are more likely than others to have a positive view" of the war effort there:

A solid majority of those who did not know anyone in Iraq said they thought the war was a mistake, 61 percent, compared to 36 percent who thought it was the right decision. Those who had a relative or friend there were almost evenly split, 49 percent right decision, 47 percent mistake.

We analyzed Friday the meaning of the relatively high numbers overall who at the moment say the war was a "mistake," but the finding that those closer to the war are more likely to support it underscores one of the more audacious inversions of the "antiwar" movement--namely the complaint that supporters of the war are not actually fighting it themselves or "sending" their "children" to fight it. These are the same people, of course, who think we should take seriously the advice of such military geniuses as Maureen Dowd, Bob Herbert, former Enron adviser Paul Krugman and Frank Rich.

Of course all citizens have a right to participate in public debates on matters of war and peace, and civilian control of the military is a core democratic principle. That the left is resorting to "chickenhawk" nonsense is a sign of how empty its argument is.

'A Liberal Nut Case'
Here's an op-ed piece that takes rather a harsher approach than most (including us) to Cindy Sheehan:

Since I am not one to sugarcoat a subject I will start by simply saying: Ms. Sheehan is a liberal nut case who needs to be put in her place.

I know these are strong words to use against a "grieving mother", but the time for grief is over. Ms. Sheehan's own hateful words ended her grievance. . . .

I think it is time for our gloves to come off. Many columnists around the country have "tip-toed" around the Sheehan controversy because they have respected the loss of her son. But now Ms. Sheehan is showing her true colors: Liberal activist, not loving mother. I think it is time to fight back. . . .

Appeasers are directly responsible for the death of Ms. Sheehan's son, not George W. Bush. If the whole country was united for the war in Iraq, I doubt if the terrorists would have started their suicide bombing campaign.

Using this logic Ms. Sheehan has become the biggest terrorist in the world, not George W. Bush as she so eloquently stated. . . .

One other point: Every time Ms. Sheehan opens her mouth in protest she is dragging the legacy of her son through liberal muck. Her son was a hero who volunteered to serve his county and died protecting the constitution. Now his mother has become a traitor who is using the war on terror to wage a war against a president whom she does not like.

What's noteworthy about this is the venue in which it appeared: the Arab News of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Maybe President Bush is succeeding in winning Arab hearts and minds.

Great Moments in Thermophysics
"Near the President's Ranch, Protests Expand in the Heat"--headline, Washington Post, Aug. 28

What if Hillary Is Sincere?
Commenting on our Friday item on the Democrats' Iraq dilemma, and in particular on Mickey Kaus's analysis of the difficulties Hillary Clinton may have in positioning herself, reader Greg Martine writes:

Perhaps Hillary is really an honest-to-goodness optimist about the Iraq war. Maybe she sincerely believes that it is winnable and that we are winning it now, regardless of the coverage it receives in the mainstream media. What would her status in the Democratic Party be two to three years from now if Iraq was standing on its own two feet (not literally, of course!) and the moonbat left that dominates the party headlines now was in full retreat?

I'm certainly no fan of the quasisenior senator from New York, but I think that a lot of people on the right would have to be somewhat hypocritical to bet against her on this. Or am I missing something?

This is an excellent point. The stereotype of Mrs. Clinton is that she is a cunning calculatrix with no genuine beliefs. But we can't rule out the possibility that, at least on this matter, she is sincere. She may also have a certain sympathy for the president qua president based on her own experience in the White House--a sympathy we wouldn't expect any other living Democrat to have other than her husband (and Jimmy Carter, who obviously lacks it).

It may be, then, that Hillary's conscience will allow her to ride out the short-term political difficulties to which Kaus alludes. Hey, stranger things have happened.

Axis of Evel
"Iranian Daredevil Dies in Motorcycle Stunt"--headline, Associated Press, Aug. 27

Segregation Forever?
It's back to school in Georgia, reports the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Twenty-seven black freshmen at the University of West Georgia will live together, attend classes together and learn to study together this year as part of the Carrollton school's first learning community for African-American men. It is believed to be the only learning community specifically for black men at a historically white public college or university in Georgia.

For all we know, this may be a good idea. But didn't this country go through quite a lot of trouble to integrate education in the South?

Wow, That Is a Big Plane!
"Airbus Superjumbo Maiden Flight in Germany Draws 150,000"--headline, Agence France-Presse, Aug. 27

Still Dead, but Still Going Strong
"Franco Says His Faith Keeps Him Going Strong"--headline, Augusta (Ga.) Chronicle, Aug. 26

Amazing That He Was Able to Keep Talking
"Worshippers of the wild and dissolute drug culture of the 1960s gathered at their temple in Woody Creek, Colo., on an August Saturday night to pay tribute to the booze-and-drug-soaked journalistic legend Hunter S. Thompson, exactly six months after he shot himself in the head in the middle of a phone call with his wife."--columnist Brent Bozell, Aug. 26

What Would We Do Without Researchers?
"Starving Won't Make People Live Longer-Researchers"--headline, Reuters, Aug. 28

What Would We Do Without Lundberg Surveys?
"Lundberg Survey: Gas Prices Could Rise Again"--headline, FoxNews.com, Aug. 28

Five-Finger Discount
"Man Walks Off Without Paying For Prosthetic Leg"--headline, Associated Press, Aug. 26

He Forgot All About Antarctica and Europe!
"I think it's good for Formula 1 [auto racing] to come to new countries. . . . Africa is the only continent that doesn't currently have a Grand Prix and, I understand, there was a delegation from South Africa in Istanbul, hoping to have a race from 2009 in Cape Town. If that happens, it will mean that we cover all five continents."--racecar driver Jarno Trulli in an interview with racing-live.com, Aug. 26

Feminists vs. Turtle Huggers
The New York Times reports on a conflict of the sort conservatives love to read about: a fight between two groups of left-wing advocates--in this case, a Mexican standoff between feminists and environmentalists. The verdes are running an ad that aims "to stop men from eating turtle eggs as an aphrodisiac":

The advertising campaign features an Argentine model in a swimsuit, giving the camera her loveliest come-hither look. Next to her are the words "My man doesn't need turtle eggs." The caption below reads, "Because he knows they don't make him more potent."

The environmentalists behind the campaign say they are trying to reach men who buy turtle eggs from street vendors and eat them raw with lime and a pinch of salt in the belief they are a natural form of Viagra.

"We said, 'Let's have a sexy girl saying that the man I choose doesn't need sea turtle eggs,' " said Fay Crevoshay, communications director for Wildcoast, a San Diego-based environmental group. "This is what I call target marketing. We are talking to a certain type of man that will look at this and will get the message."

Feminists, however, complain that the ad amounts to "exploitation of the female body" (not to mention an assault on the sea turtles' right to choose!). Crevoshay counters that she herself is "a veteran of the feminist movement, [and] she regards the ability to show off the female form without shame as a fundamental right."

We too admire the female form, so we side with Crevoshay. But we wonder if her ad campaign isn't sending a mixed message. After all, no one doubts that an Argentine supermodel can find a man who doesn't need turtle eggs. But this ad may reinforce the average José's perception that he needs a little extra help.

(Carol Muller helps compile Best of the Web Today. Thanks to Drew Anderson, C.E. Dobkin, Bret Popper, Chris Kilroy, David Cooper, John Dickson, Russ Daniel, Michael Segal, Ron Ackert, Ethel Fenig, Aaron Ammerman, Bill Wander, Dale Terry, Michael Hutchison, Bill Kicak, Terry Kane, Daniel Foty and Kevin Schmidt. If you have a tip, write us at opinionjournal@wsj.com, and please include the URL.)

Today on OpinionJournal:

• Review & Outlook: Ahmed Chalabi is back on center stage.
• John Fund: America is a laggard in the world-wide flat-tax revolution.
• Manuel Miranda: The measure of Roberts's conservatism is what he won't do on the bench.