Match Play Usually Results in Madness

The Accenture Match Play Championship is golf's version of March Madness. But filling out a bracket for this 64-player tournament might be less fun as it's nearly impossible to handicap. While a No. 1-seed has never lost their first game in the NCAA tournament, the biggest upset at the Match Play event could be if all four No. 1-seeded golfers (Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Luke Donald and Louis Oosthuizen) were still playing in round two.

Since 2008, six No. 1 seeds in golf have lost their first match, including Luke Donald last year. Only 30% of the No. 1 seeds over that same span have even advanced to the Sweet 16. By comparison, penciling in a No. 1 seed in your NCAA tournament bracket has been a pretty safe bet, with only two teams (Kansas in 2010, Pittsburgh in 2011) losing in the second round.

In the match-play golf format, nearly every early round match is a tossup, with the higher-seeded golfer only winning at a 58% rate in the first two rounds. But in the later rounds, the higher-ranked golfer usually prevails. Over the past five years, the higher seed has won 65% of the matches in the third and fourth round. And in the semifinals that percentage goes up to 100%.

While the favorite is 2-3 in the finals over this span, only last year's final with Hunter Mahan over Rory McIlroy could really be considered a Cinderella story.

A version of this article appeared February 20, 2013, on page D6 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Match Play Usually Results in Madness.